RALEIGH, N.C. — The Islanders know they will be the underdogs in a first-round rematch against the Carolina team that eliminated them last season in six games.
They’re used to it by now.
“I don’t know when we’ve ever not been the underdog, to be honest,” Anders Lee said Friday.
“I’m sure if you ask around who’s favored to win this series, everybody’s gonna say the Hurricanes,” coach Patrick Roy said. “They’re gonna say the only chance the Islanders have is if the goalies outplay the other goalie.”
But?
“But I do believe that our team has been playing very well,” Roy said. “We’re probably one of the better teams in the last 10 games.”
Indeed, the playoffs are coming at the right time for an Islanders team that adapted and gelled at the right time to compile an 8-1-0 charge to win a postseason spot in the season’s second-to-last game.
This is their chance to prove the pundits wrong and exact revenge on the team that beat them a year ago and swept them out of the playoffs in 2019.
And the Islanders intend to take it.
The Post’s Ethan Sears breaks down the matchups:
Goaltending
Carolina’s Frederik Andersen spent most of the year injured, but since returning to the lineup on March 7, he’s been excellent, with a 9-1-0 record and .951 save percentage that counted as proof the Dane hasn’t lost a step. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov has taken the starting job from Ilya Sorokin and is riding a 7-1-0 run, over which he’s compiled a .935 save percentage, into the postseason.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Sorokin or the Hurricanes’ Pyotr Kochetkov get a turn at some point in the series — though Roy made clear Friday that this is Varlamov’s net for now — and despite an off year for the 2023 Vezina finalist, there may not be a team in the league that can match the Islanders’ goaltending tandem.
Edge: Islanders
Defense
Since Roy took over, the Islanders are giving up just 2.12 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which would rank sixth in the league on a season-long basis. They’ve held opponents below 30 shots and 10 high-danger chances a game per 60 at five-on-five, both dramatic improvements thanks to Roy implementing more of a man-based system that’s successfully kept teams out of the middle of the ice.
Carolina’s blue line, however, is as deep as it gets. Between Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield, there just isn’t a weak spot on the depth chart. While Noah Dobson looks set to return from injury in Game 1, it is possible the Islanders’ best defenseman won’t be operating at full strength.
Edge: Hurricanes
Forwards
For the first time since 1993-94, the Islanders had three 30-goal scorers in Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri. For the first time since his rookie year, Mat Barzal reached 80 points.
But Carolina has a trio of 30-goal scorers of its own in Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Jake Guentzel, with the latter on a tear since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the deadline. Carolina’s lineup depth is also a major strength, with one of the best checking lines in the league anchored by Jordan Staal and four lines that can wear teams down.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s line can play the same matchup role as Staal’s for the Islanders, but Pageau is a question mark for Game 1 with a lower-body injury, and further down the lineup, the Islanders don’t have the same scoring depth as the ’Canes.
Edge: Hurricanes
Special Teams
Carolina’s power play is second in the league; the Islanders finished the year ranked 19th. Carolina’s penalty kill is the best in the league; the Islanders have a unit that drifted into historically awful territory this season and finished dead last in the NHL. Anything can happen over seven games, but there’s not much of an argument here.
Edge: Hurricanes
Coaching
Rod Brind’Amour has had nothing but success since taking over Carolina, getting to at least the second round in every year but one. His imprint is all over a team that plays a distinct set of systems — man-to-man defense, shot-heavy offense, high-pressure penalty kill — and Brind’Amour won the Jack Adams Award for the league’s best coach in 2021.
Patrick Roy is about to coach his first NHL playoff series since the 2014 first round, when his Avalanche lost in seven games to the Wild. But he won the Memorial Cup as a coach with the Quebec Remparts twice, including last season, and has done an excellent job so far in three months with the Islanders.
Edge: Hurricanes
Prediction
It’s not as lopsided as many would have you believe and the Islanders are capable of making this a series. But Carolina has been the better team all season and deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Hurricanes in 6
