The nominations for the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards that were revealed on Wednesday morning confirm that there is tremendous support from the TV Academy’s 22,000 members for the three shows that have long been presumed to be the frontrunners in their respective categories: FX’s drama series Shogun (which landed a field-leading 25 noms), FX’s comedy series The Bear (the runner-up with 23 noms, a new record for a comedy, or at least a show that could get away with being classified as one) and Netflix’s limited series Baby Reindeer (11 noms).

But — and this is a big but — the noms also suggest that pundits, including me, may have been overestimating the strength of that trio of shows and underestimating the strength of some of their competitors.

Among dramas, Netflix’s The Crown, for its sixth, final and worst-reviewed season (it’s at just 55 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), was the runner-up with a formidable 18 noms, including at least one in each of the four lead or supporting categories (something that no other drama, including Shogun, can claim). Additionally, the first seasons of Amazon’s Fallout and Mr. and Mrs. Smith and the third season of Apple’s The Morning Show all tied for third with 16, a higher tally than was predicted for any of them. Notably, those include recognition for Fallout’s lead actor Walton Goggins; Mr. and Mrs. Smith’s co-leads Donald Glover and Maya Erskine and five guest performers; and The Morning Show’s co-leads Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon and eight other performers.

Meanwhile, among comedies, Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, for its third season, received just two fewer noms than The Bear, including acting noms for not just Steve Martin and Martin Short, but also, for the first time in a performing category, Selena Gomez, as well as for newcomer-to-the-show Meryl Streep. And, in terms of limited/anthology series, Baby Reindeer was actually eclipsed in total noms by three other shows: HBO/Max’s True Detective: Night Country (which got eight more), FX’s Fargo (four more) and fellow Netflix contender Ripley (two more).

Moreover, while The Bear’s 10 acting noms (including half of all comedy guest acting slots) and Shogun’s five are certainly nothing to scoff at, both of those shows missed several other acting noms that it was in the hunt for. MIA were The Bear’s supporting actors Oliver Platt and Matty Matheson and supporting actresses Abby Elliott and Molly Gordon; and Shogun’s co-lead actor Cosmo Jarvis (what happened there?!), supporting actor Tokuma Nishioka, supporting actresses Moeka Hoshi and Fumi Nikaido and guest actress Yuko Miyamoto. True, many of those are not exactly household names, but neither were a number of the performers nominated for, say, When They See Us just a few years ago. If voters love a show, they tend to vote for people associated with it up and down the ballot, and they did that to a lesser extent than expected for The Bear and Shōgun.

Whatever ends up happening with Shogun, The Bear and Baby Reindeer, one must tip one’s cap to the platforms behind them. As was the case in 2018 and 2020, programs from Netflix accounted for more noms than programs from any other platform, a highly impressive 107 spread across dozens of categories (even with rookie drama 3 Body Problem, comedy The Gentlemen and variety talker John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA underperforming). And FX, for its part, finished second with 93 — including, beyond Shogun and The Bear, a limited/anthology series nom for Fargo and surprise drama series noms for Reservation Dogs and What We Do in the Shadows — blowing away its previous record of 56 from 2016.

HBO/Max’s tally of 91 — propelled by the aforementioned True Detective: Night Country, as well as drama The Gilded Age and comedies Curb Your Enthusiasm and Hacks — would be the envy of almost any other network, but places it third, lower than it finished in any other year in the 21st century. Apple, meanwhile, had its best showing yet, landing 72 noms, and has shows up for all three top awards, which only FX and HBO/Max can also claim: best drama (The Morning Show and Slow Horses, the latter a first-time series nominee for its third season), comedy (rookie Palm Royale) and limited/anthology series (Lessons in Chemistry). And, it must be noted, network TV showed a stronger pulse than in recent years, with ABC and CBS each snagging 38 noms, up from last year’s 28 and 20, respectively, and NBC’s Saturday Night Live leading all network programs with 17.

I suppose that of all the noms, I was most surprised by the exclusion of Showtime’s The Curse from the categories of best drama series, best drama actor (Nathan Fielder) and especially best drama actress (Emma Stone), although that is one hell of a weird show and I suspect many voters didn’t make it beyond the pilot episode; and by the inclusion of Reservation Dogs and What We Do in the Shadows for best comedy series and their respective stars, D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai and Matt Berry, for best comedy actor.

I was delighted to see so much support for the excellent Disney+ documentary special Jim Henson Idea Man, which was the most nominated nonfiction program with eight mentions; for NBC’s Late Night with Seth Meyers, which beat out some pretty heavy competition to land in the final four for best talk series alongside Comedy Central’s Jon Stewart-rejuvenated The Daily Show, CBS’s The Late Show with Stephen Colbert and ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live!; and for Maya Rudolph, who received four noms: best comedy actress (Loot), best guest comedy actress (SNL), best character voice-over performance (Big Mouth) and best original music/lyrics (“Maya Rudolph’s Mothers Day” for SNL).

I was bummed by omissions of The Gilded Age from best drama actor (Morgan Spector) and supporting actor (TV Academy favorite Nathan Lane); Fargo from best limited/anthology series supporting actress (Jennifer Jason Leigh); Curb Your Enthusiasm from comedy guest actor (Jerry Seinfeld missed here but scored a best TV movie nom for his Netflix flick Unfrosted); and Saturday Night Live from best comedy guest actress (Kate McKinnon and Sydney Sweeney missed, although Rudolph and Kristen Wiig made the cut).

But, at the end of the day, how can one complain about an Emmy nominations announcement that includes Carol Burnett (a comedy supporting actress nominee for Palm Royale) and Dick Van Dyke (the subject of pre-recorded variety special Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic)?

The race now moves toward the final round of voting (Aug. 15-26) and the awards telecast itself (Sept. 15 on ABC). Let the games begin!