2024 Emmy Nomination Predictions 5

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

Emmy nominations voting began on June 13 — the same day that the TV Academy posted on its website the full list of certified contenders for each category, providing confirmation of which contenders were/weren’t officially submitted/accepted, and, after a bit of mathematics and cross-referencing, precisely how many nominees there will ultimately be in each race.

Voting continues through 10pm PST on June 24, and then the lame-duck waiting period begins, as we won’t find out the nominees until July 17.

See below for my latest assessment of all major categories.

NOTE BEFORE READING FURTHER

(1) This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences.

(2) Unlike many other lists, the objective of the forecast is not to include every show or person that is eligible for Emmys recognition, only the top tier of contenders.

(3) Nobody can watch every Emmy-eligible show, and Scott is no exception. He arrives at these projections by at least sampling as many contenders as possible, consulting with TV Academy members, reading reviews, analyzing awards campaigns and referencing the results of other award shows, as well as the historical preferences of the TV Academy.

(4) Under program categories, you can now find listed each program’s season that is eligible, its platform, release date (of the first episode of the eligible season) and Rotten Tomatoes scores (the first from critics, the second from audiences). We also note if the TV Academy has recognized prior seasons of the program in that category with a nomination (*) or award (^).

(5) The forecast will be updated regularly to reflect new developments. We encourage you to bookmark and return to this URL to find the latest update. (Older versions will be preserved and linked to at the bottom.)

Shōgun

FX

Frontrunners
1. Shōgun (FX, 2/27/24, 99 percent/92 percent)
2. The Crown, season 6 (Netflix, 11/16/23, 55 percent/84 percent)***^*
3. The Gilded Age, season 2 (HBO/Max, 10/29/23, 93 percent/60 percent)
4. Fallout, season 1 (Amazon, 4/12/24, 94 percent/88 percent)
5. The Morning Show, season 3 (Apple, 9/13/23, 72 percent/11 percent)
6. Mr. and Mrs. Smith, season 1 (Amazon, 2/2/24, 90 percent/66 percent)
7. The Curse, season 1 (Showtime, 11/12/23, 94 percent/42 percent)
8. 3 Body Problem, season 1 (Netflix, 3/21/24, 77 percent/80 percent)

Major Threats
9. Slow Horses, season 3 (Apple, 11/29/23, 98 percent/95 percent)
10. Loki, season 2 (Disney+, 10/5/23, 82 percent/82 percent)
11. Elsbeth, season 1 (CBS, 2/29/24, 91 percent/86 percent)

Possibilities
12. Hijack, season 1 (Apple, 6/28/23, 88 percent/50 percent)
13. Ahsoka, season 1 (Disney+, 8/22/23, 86 percent/69 percent)
14. Tokyo Vice, season 2 (HBO/Max, 2/8/24, 92 percent/92 percent)
15. Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC, 1/18/24, TBD percent/23 percent)

The Bear

Courtesy of FX

Frontrunners
1. The Bear, season 2 (FX, 6/22/23, 99 percent/93 percent)^
2. Hacks, season 3 (HBO/Max, 5/2/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)**
3. Abbott Elementary, season 3 (ABC, 2/7/24, 100 percent/68 percent)**
4. Curb Your Enthusiasm, season 12 (HBO/Max, 2/4/24, 92 percent/69 percent)**********
5. Only Murders in the Building, season 3 (Hulu, 8/8/23, 96 percent/87 percent)**
6. The Gentlemen, season 1 (Netflix, 3/7/24, 72 percent/86 percent)
7. Palm Royale, season 1 (Apple, 3/20/24, 52 percent/74 percent)
8. Gen V, season 1 (Amazon, 9/29/23, 97 percent/77 percent)

Major Threats
9. Girls5eva, season 3 (Netflix, 3/14/24, 100 percent/92 percent)
10. Reservation Dogs, season 3 (FX, 8/2/23, 100 percent/91 percent)
11. Loot, season 2 (Apple, 4/3/24, 83 percent/TBD percent)
12. What We Do in the Shadows, season 5 (FX, 7/13/23, 95 percent/89 percent)**

Possibilities
13. I’m a Virgo, season 1 (Amazon, 6/23/23, 96 percent/80 percent)
14. Colin from Accounts, season 2 (Peacock, 5/30/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
15. The Righteous Gemstones, season 3 (HBO/Max, 6/18/23, 100 percent/88 percent)
16. The Ms. Pat Show, season 4 (BET, 5/23/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Ripley

Lorenzo Sisti/NETFLIX

Frontrunners
1. Baby Reindeer (Netflix, 4/11/24, 100 percent/84 perecent)
2. Ripley (Netflix, 4/4/24, 86 percent/82 percent)
3. Fargo (FX, 11/21/23, 92 percent/90 percent)^**
4. True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max, 1/14/24, 92 percent/56 percent)*
5. Lessons in Chemistry (Apple, 10/13/23, 86 percent/80 percent)

Major Threats
6. Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX, 1/31/24, 77 percent/67 percent)*
7. Fellow Travelers (Showtime, 10/29/23, 91 percent/91 percent)
8. Masters of the Air (Apple, 1/26/24, 85 percent/70 percent)
9. The Sympathizer (HBO/Max, 4/14/24, 89 percent/TBD percent)
10. A Gentleman in Moscow (Showtime, 3/29/24, 93 percent/78 percent)
11. Lawmen: Bass Reeves (Paramount+, 11/5/23, 81 percent/93 percent)
12. We Were the Lucky Ones (Hulu, 3/28/24, 95 percent/85 percent)

Possibilities
13. Under the Bridge (Hulu, 4/17/24, 84 percent/83 percent)
14. Expats (Amazon, 1/26, 84 percent/50 percent)
15. A Murder at the End of the World (FX, 11/14/23, 88 percent/89 percent)
16. Griselda (Netflix, 1/25/24, 87 percent/71 percent)
17. Genius: MLK/X (Nat Geo, 2/5/24, 75 percent/80 percent)
18. Mary & George (Starz, 4/5/24, 97 percent/73 percent)
19. The Idol (HBO, 6/4/23, 19 percent/41 percent)

Scoop

Peter Mountain/Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Scoop (Netflix, 4/5/24, 78 percent/62 percent)
2. Mr. Monk’s Last Case (Peacock, 12/8/23, 95 percent/80 percent)
3. Red, White and Royal Blue (Amazon, 8/11/23, 76 percent/93 percent)
4. The Great Lillian Hall (HBO, 5/31/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
5. The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial (Showtime, 10/6/23, 94 percent/77 percent)

Major Threats
6. Quiz Lady (Hulu, 11/3/23, 81 percent/81 percent)
7. Unfrosted (Netflix, 5/3/24, 44 percent/52 percent)
8. Música (Amazon, 4/4/24, 95 percent/90 percent)
9. Totally Killer (Amazon, 10/6/23, 87 percent/77 percent)

Possibilities
10. No One Will Save You (Hulu, 9/22/23, 82 percent/56 percent)
11. Upgraded (Amazon, 2/9/24, 77 percent/68 percent)
12. Self Reliance (Hulu, 1/12/24, 72 percent/62 percent)
13. Ricky Stanicky (Amazon/MGM, 3/7/24, 47 percent/74 percent)

The Daily Show

Courtesy of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show”

Frontrunners
1. The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
2. The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
3. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
4. John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA (Netflix) — podcast (John Mulaney)

Major Threats
5. Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast (Seth Meyers)
6. The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) — podcast (Jimmy Fallon)
7. Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO/Max) — podcast (Bill Maher)

Possibilities
8. Hot Ones (YouTube)
9. Watch What Happens Live (Bravo) — podcast (Andy Cohen)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Courtesy of HBO

Frontrunners
1. Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO/Max)
2. Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)

Major Threats
3. After Midnight (CBS)

Possibilities
4. Painting with John (HBO/Max)

Dick Van Dyke in Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic

Monty Brinton/CBS

Frontrunners
1. Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic (CBS, 12/21/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
2. Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix, 12/31/23, 20 percent/83 percent)
3. Gaga Chromatica Ball (HBO/Max, 5/25/24, 100 percent/96 percent) — podcast 1 and 2 (Lady Gaga)
4. Alex Edelman: Just for Us (HBO/Max, 4/6/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
5. The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: 10th Anniversary Special (NBC) — podcast (Jimmy Fallon)

Major Threats
6. Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas (Apple, 11/22/23, 100 percent/91 percent)
7. Billy Joel: The 100th — Live at Madison Square Garden (CBS, 4/14/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
8. Trevor Noah: Where Was I (Netflix, 12/19/23, TBD percent/46 percent) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
9. Dolly Parton’s Pet Gala (CBS, 2/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Dolly Parton)
10. A Grammy Salute to 50 Years of Hip Hop (CBS, 12/10/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
11. Library of Congress Gershwin Prize for Popular Song: Elton John & Bernie Taupin (PBS, 4/8/24, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Elton John)
12. This Is Me… Now: A Love Story (Amazon, 2/16/24, 75 percent/76 percent) — podcast (Jennifer Lopez)
13. Kevin Hart: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor (Netflix, 5/11/24, TK percent/TK percent) — podcast (Kevin Hart)
14. The 46th Kennedy Center Honors (CBS, 12/27/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
15. Ricky Gervais: Armageddon (Netflix, 12/25/23, 50 percent/63 percent) — podcast (Ricky Gervais)
16. Kevin Hart: Reality Check (Peacock, 7/6/23, TBD percent/78 percent) — podcast (Kevin Hart)
17. Ramy Youssef: More Feelings (HBO/Max, 3/23/24, 100 percent/100 percent) — podcast (Ramy Youssef)
18. Katt Williams: Woke Foke (Netflix, 5/4/24, TBD percent/0 percent)
19. Taylor Mac’s 24Decade History of Popular Music (HBO/Max, 6/27/23, 100 percent/62 percent)

Possibilities
20. The Price Is Right: A Tribute to Bob Barker (CBS, 8/31/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
21. Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool (Netflix, 11/21/23, 100 percent/89 percent)
22. Barry Manilow’s A Very Barry Christmas (NBC, 12/8/23, TBD percent/67 percent)
23. Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die (HBO/Max, TBD, TBD percent/TBD percent)
24. Hannah Gadsby: Gender Agenda (Netflix, 3/5/24, TBD percent/38 percent)
25. Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact (Netflix, 6/13/23, 100 percent/18 percent)
26. Jacqueline Novak: Get on Your Knees (Netflix, 1/23/24, TBD percent/81 percent)
27. Taylor Tomlinson: Have It All (Netflix, 2/13/24, TBD percent/78 percent)
28. 2023 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Disney+, 11/3/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
29. iHeartRadio Jingle Ball 2023 (ABC, 12/21/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
30. Jim Gaffigan: Dark Pale (Amazon, 7/25/23, TBD percent/37 percent)
31. Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix Opening Ceremony (ESPN2, 11/15/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
32. AFI Life Achievement Award: 50th Anniversary Special (TCM, 12/30/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)

The Oscars

Frank Micelotta/Disney via Getty Images

Frontrunners
1. G.R.O.A.T. The Greatest Roast of All Time: Tom Brady (Netflix, 5/5/24, TBD percent/73 percent)
2. The Oscars (ABC, 3/10/24, 83 percent/86 percent) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
3. The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher (CBS, 2/11/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
4. The 66th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS, 2/4/24, 60 percent/33 percent) — podcast (Trevor Noah & Ben Winston)
5. Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix, 12/31/23, 20 percent/82 percent)

Major Threats
4. The 76th Tony Awards (CBS, 6/11/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)
6. Apple Music Live: Jennifer Lopez (Apple, 2/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Jennifer Lopez)
7. 2023 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (ABC, 1/1/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
8. Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve with Ryan Seacrest (ABC, 12/31/23, TBD percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Ryan Seacrest)

Possibilities
9. The 57th Annual Country Music Association Awards (11/8/23, ABC, TBD percent/TBD percent)
10. SAG Awards (Netflix, 2/24/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
11. The 81st Golden Globe Awards (CBS, 1/7/24, 8 percent/10 percent)
12. BET Awards 2023 (BET, 6/25/23, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV

Investigation Discovery

Frontrunners
1. Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV (ID, 3/17/24, 100 percent/81 percent)
2. Beckham (Netflix, 10/4/23, 88 percent/95 percent)
3. The Jinx — Part 2 (HBO/Max, 4/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
4. The Super Models (Apple, 9/20/23, 83 percent/74 percent) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
5. Our Planet II (Netflix, 6/14/23, 100 percent/86 percent)^

Major Threats
6. The Dynasty: New England Patriots (Apple, 2/16/24, 100 percent/50 percent)
7. Queens (Nat Geo, 3/4/24, 80 percent/TBD percent)
8. Secrets of the Octopus (Nat Geo, 4/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
9. Planet Earth III (BBC America, 11/4/23, 100 percent/95 percent)
10. American Masters (PBS, 1/24/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
11. Thank You, Goodnight: The Bon Jovi Story (Hulu, 4/26/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
12. Where Is Wendy Williams? (Lifetime, 2/24/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
13. The Prison Confessions of Gypsy Rose Blanchard (Lifetime, 1/5/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
14. Murder in Boston: Roots, Rampage & Reckoning (HBO/Max, 12/4/23, 100 percent/91 percent)

Possibilities
15. Telemarketers (HBO/Max, 8/13/23, 96 percent/94 percent)
16. Black Twitter: A People’s History (Hulu, 5/9/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
17. Escaping Twin Flames (Netflix, 11/8/23, 100 percent/76 percent)
18. Last Call: When a Serial Killer Stalked Queer New York (HBO/Max, 7/9/23, 100 percent/85 percent)
19. Predator v Prey (BBC America, 4/20/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
20. Arnold (Netflix, 6/7/23, 70 percent/93 percent)
21. American Nightmare (Netflix, 1/17/24, 96 percent/87 percent)
22. Kings from Queens: The RUN DMC Story (Peacock, 2/1/24, 100 percent/TBD percent)

The Greatest Night in Pop

Courtesy of Netflix

Frontrunners
1. The Greatest Night in Pop (Netflix, 1/29/24, 98 percent/89 percent)
2. STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces (Apple, 3/29/24, 91 percent/92 percent)
3. Jim Henson Idea Man (Disney+, 5/31/24, 100 percent/TBD percent)
4. Albert Brooks: Defending My Life (HBO/Max, 11/11/23, 97 percent/91 percent) — podcast (Rob Reiner)
5. The Beach Boys (Disney+, 5/24/24, 87 percent/80 percent) — podcast (Frank Marshall)

Major Threats
6. Girls State (Apple, 4/5/24, 95 percent/73 percent)
7. Rock Hudson: All That Heaven Allowed (HBO/Max, 6/28/23, 91 percent/74 percent)
8. In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon (MGM+, 3/17/24, 94 percent/TBD percent) — podcast (Alex Gibney)
9. Kevin Hart & Chris Rock: Headliners Only (Netflix, 12/12/23, TBD percent/73 percent) — podcast (Kevin Hart)
10. Goliath (Showtime, 7/16/23, 100 percent/100 percent)
11. Wham! (Netflix, 7/5/23, 89 percent/88 percent)

Possibilities
12. Sly (Netflix, 11/3/23, 81 percent/87 percent)
13. Maxine’s Baby (Amazon, 11/17/23, 82 percent/86 percent)
14. Milli Vanilli (Paramount+, 10/24/23, 100 percent/92 percent)
15. For Love & Life: No Ordinary Campaign (Amazon, 5/28/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)
16. The Bloody Hundredth (Apple, 3/15/24, TDB percent/93 percent)
17. Beyond the Aggressives: 25 Years Later (Showtime, 3/30/24, 100 percent/82 percent)

My Next Guest with David Letterman and John Mulaney

Clifton Prescod/Netflix

Frontrunners
1. My Next Guest with David Letterman and John Mulaney (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman & John Mulaney)
2. Conan O’Brien Must Go (HBO/Max) — podcast (Conan O’Brien)
3. The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy (Apple) — podcast (Eugene Levy)
4. High on the Hog (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
5. Somebody Feed Phil (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates Jr. (PBS)
7. An Oprah Special: Shame, Blame and the Weight Loss Revolution (ABC)
8. Gordon Ramsay: Uncharted (Nat Geo)

Possibilities
9. Trippin’ With Anthony Anderson and Mama Doris (NBC)
10. Orlando Bloom: To the Edge (Peacock)
11. How to with John Wilson (HBO/Max)

Stamped From the Beginning

Courtesy of TIFF

Frontrunners
1. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix, 11/20/23, 100 percent/65 percent) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
2. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO/Max, 1/8/24, 97 percent/86 percent)
3. The Blue Angels (Amazon, TBD, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Major Threats
4. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple, 10/20/23, 96 percent/68 percent)

Possibilities
5. Immediate Family (Magnolia, 12/15/23, 100 percent/92 percent)
6. Blue Carbon: Nature’s Hidden Power (CNN, 4/21/24, TBD percent/TBD percent)

Hiroyuki Sanada in Shōgun

Katie Yu/FX

Frontrunners
1. Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun, FX)
2. Cosmo Jarvis (Shōgun, FX)
3. Dominic West (The Crown, Netflix)
4. Walton Goggins (Fallout, Amazon)
5. Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
6. Morgan Spector (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)

Major Threats
7. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses, Apple) — podcast
8. Tom Hiddleston (Loki, Disney+) — podcast
9. Idris Elba (Hijack, Apple) — podcast
10. Nathan Fielder (The Curse, Showtime)

Possibilities
11. Colin Farrell (Sugar, Apple) — podcast
12. Ansel Elgort (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
13. Ken Watanabe (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)

Anna Sawai in Shōgun

Disney

Frontrunners
1. Anna Sawai (Shōgun, FX) — podcast
2. Emma Stone (The Curse, Showtime) — podcast
3. Imelda Staunton (The Crown, Netflix)
4. Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
5. Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show, Apple)*

Major Threats
6. Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
7. Ella Purnell (Fallout, Amazon)
8. Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show, Apple)* — podcast
9. Carrie Preston (Elsbeth, CBS)
10. Jess Hong (3 Body Problem, Netflix)

Possibilities
11. Rosario Dawson (Ahsoka, Disney+)
12. Rachel Keller (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
13. Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, NBC)

Billy Crudup in The Morning Show

Everett

Frontrunners
1. Billy Crudup (The Morning Show, Apple)^*
2. Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun, FX)
3. Nathan Lane (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
4. Jonathan Pryce (The Crown, Netflix) — podcast
5. Khalid Abdalla (The Crown, Netflix)
6. Mark Duplass (The Morning Show, Apple)*
7. Benny Safdie (The Curse, Showtime)

Major Threats
8. Takehiro Hira (Shōgun, FX)
9. Tokuma Nishioka (Shōgun, FX)
10. Ke Huy Quan (Loki, Disney+) — podcast
11. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses, Apple)
12. Aaron Moten (Fallout, Amazon)
13. John Douglas Thompson (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)

Possibilities
14. Benedict Wong (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
15. Liam Cunningham (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
16. Owen Wilson (Loki, Disney+)
17. Wendell Pierce (Elsbeth, CBS)
18. Shô Kasamatsu (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
19. Hayden Christensen (Ahsoka, Disney+)

Elizabeth Debicki in The Crown

Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown, Netflix)*
2. Lesley Manville (The Crown, Netflix)
3. Moeka Hoshi (Shōgun, FX)
4. Fumi Nikaido (Shōgun, FX)
5. Leslie Uggams (Fallout, Amazon)
6. Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
7. Cynthia Nixon (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)

Major Threats
8. Audra McDonald (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
9. Olivia Williams (The Crown, Netflix)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses, Apple)
11. Eiza González (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
12. Greta Lee (The Morning Show, Apple)
13. Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show, Apple)
14. Holland Taylor (The Morning Show, Apple)

Possibilities
15. Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show, Apple)
16. Karen Pittman (The Morning Show, Apple)
17. Denée Benton (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
18. Sophia Di Martino (Loki)
19. Ellen Burstyn (Law & Order: Organized Crime, NBC)

Michael Emerson in Fallout

Courtesy of Amazon

Frontrunners
1. Sam Waterston (Law & Order, NBC) — podcast
2. Michael Emerson (Fallout, Amazon)
3. Kyle MacLachlan (Fallout, Amazon)
4. Néstor Carbonell (Shōgun, FX)
5. Michael Braugher (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)

Major Threats
6. Darren Goldstein (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
7. Arian Moayed (Elsbeth, CBS)
8. John Turturro (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon) — podcast
9. Rob Morgan (Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
10. Will Arnett (The Morning Show, Apple) — podcast
11. Wagner Moura (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
12. Paul Dano (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon) — podcast

Possibilities
13. Lance Reddick (Bosch: Legacy, Amazon)
14. John Goodman (Monarch: Legacy of Monsters, Apple)
15. Morgan Freeman (Special Ops: Lioness, Paramount+)
16. Tracy Letts (Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
17. Danny Burstein (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)
18. John Bradley (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
19. Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses, Apple)
20. Cameron Cowperthwaite (The Fallout, Amazon)

Claire Foy (right) in The Crown

Courtesy of Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Claire Foy (The Crown, Netflix) — podcast
2. Dale Dickey (Fallout, Amazon)
3. Yuko Miyamoto (Shōgun, FX)
4. Michaela Coel (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
5. Sarah Paulson (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Laura Benanti (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
7. Melanie Nicholls-King (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
8. Natalie Morales (The Morning Show, Apple)
9. Marcia Gay Harden (The Morning Show, Apple)
10. Sharon Horgan (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon)
11. Parker Posey (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Amazon)

Possibilities
12. Glenn Close (The New Look, Apple)
13. Jane Krakowski (Elsbeth, CBS)
14. LisaGay Hamilton (Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
15. Zine Tseng (3 Body Problem, Netflix)
16. Jessica Hecht (Tokyo Vice, HBO/Max)

Jeremy Allen White in The Bear

Everett Collection

Frontrunners
1. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear, FX)^
2. Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)******
3. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)** — podcast
4. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)*
5. Theo James (The Gentlemen, Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Kelsey Grammer (Frasier, Paramount+)
7. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs, FX)
8. Danny McBride (The Righteous Gemstones, HBO/Max)

Possibilities
9. Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
10. Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
11 Jharrel Jerome (I’m a Virgo, Amazon)
12. Chris Messina (Based on a True Story, Peacock)

Jean Smart in Hacks

Jake Giles Netter/Max

Frontrunners
1. Jean Smart (Hacks, HBO/Max)^^
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear, FX)^
3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary, ABC)*^ — podcast
4. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
5. Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale, Apple) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Maya Rudolph (Loot, Apple)
7. Devery Jacobs (Reservation Dogs, FX)
8. Natasha Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
9. Renee Elise Goldsberry (Girls5eva, Netflix)

Possibilities
10. Sara Bareilles (Girls5eva, Netflix)
11. Sarah Lancashire (Julia, HBO/Max)
12. Kaley Cuoco (Based on a True Story, Peacock) — podcast
13. Edi Patterson (The Righteous Gemstones, HBO/Max)
14. Patricia ‘Ms. Pat’ Williams (The Ms. Pat Show, BET)

Ebon Moss-Bachrach in The Bear

Chuck Hodes/FX

Frontrunners
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear, FX)^
2. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary, ABC)**
3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks, HBO/Max)
4. Oliver Platt (The Bear, FX)*
5. Lionel Boyce (The Bear, FX)
6. Matty Matheson (The Bear, FX)

Major Threats
7. Richard Lewis (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
8. Chris Perfetti (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
9. Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Buildings, Hulu)
10. William Stanford Davis (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
11. Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks, HBO/Max)*
12. Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live, NBC)**
13. Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live, NBC)*** — podcast
14. Chance Perdomo (Gen V, Amazon)

Possibilities
15. Giancarlo Esposito (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
16. Daniel Ings (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
17. Vinnie Jones (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
18. J.B. Smoove (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
19. Joel Kim Booster (Loot, Apple)
20. Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
21. Mark Proksch (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)

Hannah Einbinder in Hacks

Jake Giles Netter/Max

Frontrunners
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks, HBO/Max)** — podcast
2. Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary, ABC)^* — podcast
4. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary, ABC)**
5. Abby Elliott (The Bear, FX)
6. Liza Colon-Zayas (The Bear, FX)

Major Threats
7. Molly Gordon (The Bear, FX)
8. Meg Stalter (Hacks, HBO/Max)
9. Allison Janney (Palm Royale, Apple) — podcast
10. Carol Burnett (Palm Royale, Apple) — podcast
11. Laura Dern (Palm Royale, Apple)
12. Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
13. Kaya Scodelario (The Gentlemen, Netflix)

Possiblities
14. Judith Light (Julia, HBO/Max)
15. Heidi Gardner (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
16. Ego Nwodim (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
17. Michaela Jaé Rodriguez (Loot, Apple)
18. Paulina Alexis (Reservation Dogs, FX)
19. Carmen Ejogo (I’m a Virgo, Amazon)

Jerry Seinfeld in Curb Your Enthusiasm

John Johnson/HBO

Frontrunners
1. Jerry Seinfeld (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max) — podcast
2. Ryan Gosling (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
3. John Mulaney (The Bear, FX) — podcast
4. Jon Bernthal (The Bear, FX)*
5. Bradley Cooper (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
6. Will Ferrell (John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA) — podcast

Major Threats
7. Vince Vaughn (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max) — podcast
8. Andy Samberg (John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA)
9. Bruce Springsteen (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
10. Christopher McDonald (Hacks, HBO/Max)
11. Bob Odenkirk (The Bear, FX) — podcast
12. Christopher Lloyd (Hacks, HBO/Max)
13. Mel Brooks (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
14. James Caverly (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
15. Matthew Broderick (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
16. Keegan-Michael Key (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
17. Timothée Chalamet (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast

Possibilities
18. Bad Bunny (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
19. Pete Davidson (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
20. Ethan Hawke (Reservation Dogs, FX) — podcast
21. Robert Townsend (The Bear, FX)
22. Will Poulter (The Bear, FX)
23. Tony Goldwyn (Hacks, HBO/Max) — podcast
24. Sean Hayes (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
25. Bruce Dern (Palm Royale, Apple)

Jamie Lee Curtis in The Bear

Chuck Hodes/FX

Frontrunners
1. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Bear, FX)
2. Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
3. Kaitlin Olson (Hacks, HBO/Max)
4. Olivia Colman (The Bear, FX) — podcast
5. Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live, NBC)

Major Threats
6. Allison Janney (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO) — podcast
7. Emma Stone (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
8. Lily Gladstone (Reservation Dogs, FX) — podcast
9. Sydney Sweeney (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
10. Gillian Jacobs (The Bear, FX)
11. Sarah Paulson (The Bear, FX) — podcast
12. J. Smith-Cameron (Hacks, HBO/Max)
13. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
14. Jane Lynch (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
15. Dakota Johnson (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast

Possibilities
16. Ayo Edebiri (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
17. Dua Lipa (Saturday Night Live, NBC) — podcast
18. Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
19. Andrea Martin (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
20. Tina Fey (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu) — podcast
21. Sienna Miller (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
22. Candice Bergen (And Just Like That…, HBO/Max) — podcast
23. Hannah Einbinder (Julia, HBO/Max) — podcast

Jon Hamm in Fargo

Michelle Faye/FX

Frontrunners
1. Jon Hamm (Fargo, FX)
2. Andrew Scott (Ripley, Netflix)
3. Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
4. Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX) — podcast
5. Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers, Showtime) — podcast

Major Threats
6. David Oyelowo (Lawmen: Bass Reeves, Paramount+) — podcast
7. Michael Douglas (Franklin, Apple) — podcast
8. Tony Shalhoub (Mr. Monk’s Last Case, Peacock) — podcast
9. Ewan McGregor (A Gentleman in Moscow, Paramount+)
10. Austin Butler (Masters of the Air, Apple) — podcast
11. Callum Turner (Masters of the Air, Apple)
12. Hoa Xuande (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max)

Possibilities
13. Jeff Daniels (A Man in Full, Netflix) — podcast
14. Kiefer Sutherland (The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial, Showtime)
15. Nicholas Galitzine (Mary & George, Starz)
16. Matthias Schoenaerts (The Regime, HBO/Max)
17. Aaron Pierre (Genius: MLX/X, Nat Geo)
18. Kelvin Harrison Jr. (Genius: MLK/X, Nat Geo)
19. Taylor Zakhar Perez (Red, White & Royal Blue, Amazon)

Brie Larson in Lessons in Chemistry

Apple TV+

Frontrunners
1. Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple) — podcast
2. Juno Temple (Fargo, FX)
3. Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max) — podcast
4. Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
5. Sofía Vergara (Griselda, Netflix) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Nicole Kidman (Expats, Amazon) — podcast
7. Kate Winslet (The Regime, HBO/Max) — podcast 1 and 2
8. Jessica Lange (The Great Lillian Hall, HBO)
9. Emma Corrin (A Murder at the End of the World, FX) — podcast
10. Julianne Moore (Mary & George, Starz) — podcast
11. Joey King (We Were the Lucky Ones, Hulu)

Possibilities
12. Ji-young Yoo (Expats, Amazon)
13. Mary Elizabeth Winstead (A Gentleman in Moscow, Showtime)
14. Lily-Rose Depp (The Idol, HBO)
15. Billie Piper (Scoop, Netflix)
16. Emma Roberts (American Horror Story: Delicate, FX)

Robert Downey Jr. in The Sympathizer

HBO/Hopper Stone

Frontrunners
1. Robert Downey Jr. (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max)
2. Lewis Pullman (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple)
3. Jonathan Bailey (Fellow Travelers, Showtime)
4. Johnny Flynn (Ripley, Netflix)
5. Tom Goodman-Hill (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
6. Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
7. Ron Cephas Jones (Genius: MLK/X, Nat Geo)

Major Threats
8. John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
9. Joe Keery (Fargo, FX)
10. Lamorne Morris (Fargo, FX)
11. John Malkovich (Ripley, Netflix)
12. Hugh Grant (The Regime, HBO/Max) — podcast
14. Clive Owen (A Murder at the End of the World, FX)
15. Barry Keoghan (Masters of the Air, Apple)
16. Anthony Boyle (Masters of the Air, Apple)

Possibilities
17. Donald Sutherland (Lawmen: Bass Reeves, Paramount+)
18. Joe Mantello (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX) — podcast
19. Russell Tovey (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
20. Pierce Brosnan (The Great Lillian Hall, HBO/Max)
21. Rufus Sewell (Scoop, Netflix)
22. Lance Reddick (The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial)
23. Bill Camp (A Man in Full, Netflix)
24. Harvey Keitel (The Tattooist of Auschwitz, Peacock) — podcast

Jessica Gunning in Baby Reindeer

Joe Maher/Getty Images

Frontrunners
1. Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
2. Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh (Fargo, FX) — podcast
4. Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
5. Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge, Hulu) — podcast
6. Dakota Fanning (Ripley, Netflix)

Major Threats
7. Aja Naomi King (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple)
8. Calista Flockhart (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX) — podcast
9. Diane Lane (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
10. Chloe Sevigny (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
11. Molly Ringwald (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
12. Demi Moore (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
13. Sandra Oh (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max) — podcast
14. Allison Williams (Fellow Travelers, Showtime) — podcast

Possibilities
15. Sarayu Blue (Expats, Amazon)
16. Riley Keough (Under the Bridge, Hulu)
17. Kathy Bates (The Great Lillian Hall, HBO/Max)
18. Lily Rabe (The Great Lillian Hall, HBO/Max)
19. Richa Moorjani (Fargo, FX)
20. Andrea Riseborough (The Regime, HBO/Max)
21. Martha Plimpton (The Regime, HBO/Max)
22. Gillian Anderson (Scoop, Netflix) — podcast

Shōgun

Katie Yu/FX

Frontrunners
1. Shōgun (FX)
2. The Crown (Netflix)***^*
3. Slow Horses (Apple)
4. The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)
5. The Curse (Showtime)
6. Fallout (Amazon)

Major Threats
7. Loki (Disney+)
8. 3 Body Problem (Netflix)
9. Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Amazon)
10. Tokyo Vice (HBO/Max)
11. The Morning Show (Apple)

Possibilities
12. Ahsoka (Disney+)
13. Elsbeth (CBS)
14. Hijack (Apple)
15. Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty (HBO/Max)

The Bear

Courtesy of Chuck Hodes/FX

Frontrunners
1. The Bear (FX)^
2. Abbott Elementary (ABC)^
3. Hacks (Max)^*
4. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)**
5. The Gentlemen (Netflix)
6. What We Do in the Shadows (FX)**

Major Threats
7. Palm Royale (Apple)
8. Gen V (Amazon)
9. I’m a Virgo (Amazon)
10. Loot (Apple)

Possibilities
11. Reservation Dogs (FX)
12. Girls5eva (Netflix)*
13. Ted (Peacock)
14. Never Have I Ever (Netflix)

Fargo

FX

Frontrunners
1. Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
2. Ripley (Netflix)
3. Fargo (FX)
4. True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)
5. Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX)
6. Fellow Travelers (Showtime)

Major Threats
7. Lessons in Chemistry (Apple)
8. A Murder at the End of the World (FX)
9. Griselda (Netflix)
10. Masters of the Air (Apple)

Possibilities
11. A Gentleman in Moscow (Showtime)
12. Lawmen: Bass Reeves (Paramount+)
13. Under the Bridge (Hulu)
14. We Were the Lucky Ones (Hulu)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Courtesy of HBO

Frontrunners
1. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)*^^^^^^^^
2. John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA (Netflix) — podcast (John Mulaney)
3. Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)***** — podcast (Seth Meyers)
4. The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)******* — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
5. The Daily Show (Comedy Central)

Major Threats
6. Saturday Night Live (NBC)^^^^************************* — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
7. Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO/Max)****** — podcast (Bill Maher)

Possibilities
8. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)* — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
9. The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock)*

Alex Edelman: Just for Us

HBO

Frontrunners
1. Alex Edelman: Just for Us (HBO/Max)
2. Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix)
3. Trevor Noah: Where Was I (Netflix) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
4. Ricky Gervais: Armageddon (Netflix) — podcast (Ricky Gervais)
5. Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. G.R.O.A.T. The Greatest Roast Of All Time: Tom Brady (Netflix)
7. John Early: Now More Than Ever (HBO/Max)
8. Ramy Youssef: More Feelings (HBO/Max) — podcast (Ramy Youssef)
9. Jenny Slate: Seasoned Professional (Amazon)
10. Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas (Apple)

Possibilities
11. Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact (Netflix)
12. Jim Gaffigan: Dark Pale (Amazon)
13. Tig Notaro: Hello Again (Amazon)
14. Hannah Gadsby: Gender Agenda (Netflix) — podcast (Hannah Gadsby)
15. Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die (HBO/Max)
16. Taylor Tomlinson: Have It All (Netflix)

Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV

Investigation Discovery/YouTube

Frontrunners
1. Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV (ID)
2. The Jinx — Part 2 (HBO/Max)
3. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix)
4. Our Planet II (Netflix)
5. Queens (Nat Geo)

Major Threats
6. American Masters (PBS)
7. Life on Our Planet (Netflix)
8. Planet Earth III (BBC America)
9. Deadlocked: How America Shaped the Supreme Court (Showtime)

Possibilities
10. Maxine’s Baby (Amazon)
11. For Love and Life: No Ordinary Campaign (Amazon)
12. Last Call: When a Serial Killer Stalked Queer New York (HBO/Max)
13. Telemarketers (HBO/Max)

Queer Eye

Ilana Panich-Linsman/Netflix

Frontrunners
1. Queer Eye (Netflix)^^^^^^
2. Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food Network)*******
3. Love Is Blind (Netflix)***
4. Shark Tank (ABC)^^^^********
5. Antiques Roadshow (PBS)*********************

Major Threats
6. The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman (Netflix)
7. Running Wild with Bear Grylls (Nat Geo)*
8. Twin Love (Amazon)
9. Couples Therapy (Showtime)

Possibilities
10. The Ultimatum: Marry or Move (Netflix)
11. We’re Here (HBO/Max)*
12. Chrissy & Dave Dine Out (Freeform)
13. Pawn Stars (History)
14. Couple to Throuple (Peacock)

Welcome to Wrexham

Courtesy Everett Collection

Frontrunners
1. Welcome to Wrexham (FX)^ — podcast (Ryan Reynolds)
2. RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (MTV)^******
3. Love on the Spectrum U.S. (Netflix)^
4. Selling Sunset (Netflix)***
5. The Jerrod Carmichael Reality Show (HBO/Max) — podcast (Jerrod Carmichael)

Major Threats
6. Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)*
7. Real Housewives of Salt Lake City (Bravo)
8. Below Deck Down Under (Bravo)*
9. Deadliest Catch (Discovery)^^^**********
10. Project Greenlight: A New Generation (HBO/Max)
11. Life Below Zero (Nat Geo)*

Possibilities
12. The Family Stallone (Paramount+)
13. Love Undercover (Peacock)
14. The Real Housewives Ultimate Girls Trip: RHONY Legacy (Peacock)
15. Friends in Low Places (Amazon)
16. Jersey Shore Family Vacation (MTV)
17. Dance Moms: The Reunion (Lifetime)

RuPaul’s Drag Race

World of Wonder/Paramount+

Frontrunners
1. RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV) — podcast (RuPaul)^^^^^**
2. The Amazing Race (CBS)^^^^^^^^^^**********
3. The Voice (NBC)^^^^********
4. Survivor (CBS)*******
5. The Traitors (Peacock)

Major Threats
6. The Golden Bachelor (ABC)
7. The Big Nailed It Baking Challenge (Netflix)****
8. Top Chef (Bravo)^****************
9. American Idol (ABC)*********
10. American Ninja Warrior (NBC)****
11. Squid Game: The Challenge (Netflix)
12. LEGO Masters (Fox)

Possibilities
13. So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)*****
14. Dancing with the Stars (ABC)***********
15. The Masked Singer (Fox)*
16. The Challenge: Battle for a New Champion (MTV)
17. Is It Cake? (Netflix)
18. America’s Got Talent: Fantasy League (NBC)
19. Deal or No Deal Island (NBC)
20. Tournament of Champions (Food Network)

Jeopardy!

Eric McCandless/Disney

Frontrunners
1. Jeopardy! (ABC/Syndicated)^
2. Wheel of Fortune (Syndicated)*
3. Family Feud (ABC/Syndicated)*
4. The Price Is Right (CBS)*
5. Password (NBC) — podcast (Jimmy Fallon)

Major Threats
6. Game Changer (Dropout)
7. The Wall (NBC)
8. Weakest Link (NBC)

Possibilities
9. The Floor (Fox)
10. Press Your Luck (ABC)
11. We Are Family (Fox)

X-Men ’97

Courtesy of Marvel Animation

Frontrunners
1. X-Men ’97 (Disney+)
2. The Simpsons (Fox)^^^^^^^^^^^^********************
3. Bob’s Burgers (Fox)^^**********
4. Archer (FXX)^***
5. Blue Eye Samurai (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Big Mouth (Netflix)***
7. Scott Pilgrim Takes Off (Netflix)
8. Rick and Morty (Adult Swim)^^**
9. What If…? (Disney+)*
10. Hazbin Hotel (Amazon)
11. The Second Best Hospital in the Galaxy (Amazon)
12. Star Trek: Lower Decks (Paramount+)
13. A Trixie & Katya Christmas (MTV)

Possibilities
14. South Park: Joining the Panderverse (Paramount+)
15. Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butthead (Paramount+)
16. In the Know (Peacock)
17. Invincible (Amazon)
18. Iwájú (Disney+)
19. Dora (Paramount+)
20. Grimsburg (Fox)

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